Mark Stretton looks into his crystal ball for restaurant predictions for 2010
The crystal ball has been dusted down and is showing some clear trends for the coming year. And they are pretty much all going to affect you, says Mark Stretton, editor of M&C Report.
Making predictions is a fool’s business. But we at M&C Report are game and have been doing our best to read the tea leaves. So, if it’s not too much of an indulgence, here are some of what we believe are the key themes and issues for the UK eating-out market in 2010.
Health lunatics: the no-fun police are here to stay. It is one of the big ongoing issues for anyone who sells food for a living. For a start, the health fraternity want everyone to know exactly how many calories they’re consuming at all times. So look out for “voluntary” schemes (co-ordinated by the Food Standards Agency) asking restaurants – certainly the chains – to disclose all sorts against each menu item. And if not enough companies oblige, legislation could follow. As depressing as it sounds, spare a thought for the booze brigade: they have it worse.
Consumer crunch: the credit has been crunched and it feels like consumers could be next. Whoever wins the next general election, which must happen this side of June, is going to have to get real about raising taxes, and cutting costs in the public sector. VAT goes up this month and there is a very real possibility of a further increase to 20 per cent before the year is out. It means that large swathes of the population will have a little less to spend. Ho hum.
That bloated feeling: a bit like everyone’s waistline this side of the new year, the restaurant sector’s debt position is a little on the large side. The banks will continue to swap debt for equity at some groups, and pull the plug on others.
Intensive care: unfortunately not everyone is going to make it. It will be a case of watching and waiting to see who unfortunately succumbs to the administrator, when those quarterly VAT and rent bills are due. It was ever thus – the strong will get stronger, and the weak, weaker.
Supermarket sweep: Britain’s grocers – among the best retailers in the world – will continue to bite at eating-out’s heels, doing their level best to take market share on the refuelling and informal occasions upon which many mainstream restaurants rely. If people do have a bit less money in their pockets, the supermarkets will look to take advantage. And some, such as M&S and Waitrose, plan to go full tilt into eating-out.
The Americans are coming: there are a few 500lb gorillas coming over from the States. Chipotle, the 900- strong US burrito giant has already named its first UK store (Charing Cross Road, London), while Ruby Tuesday is to open in Bristol, in partnership with a franchisee. Applebees is also said to have designs on the UK and is rumoured to be looking at the old Planet Hollywood site just off Leicester Square.
Local and authentic: perhaps more of a middleclass phenomenon, the desire for local and authentic will not dissipate. If you’re called Chef & Brewer, the food had better be good, well-sourced fare, and the beer, interesting and authentic. Similarly Ultimate Burger had better deliver… the ultimate burger.
Happy New Year: let us not forget the very human need to come together, to celebrate, to try new
things, and to let off steam. If 2010 proves not to be amazingly better than 2009, then the role of the restaurant and the bar in society – those havens of conviviality – is going to be more important than ever.
Tags: discount, front of house, FSA, internet, nutritional information, Restaurants
2nd January 2010